Declining Orange Consumption in Japan: Generational Changes or Something Else?
By Hiroshi Mori, Dennis Clason, Kimiko Ishibashi, William D. Gorman, and John Dyck
Economic Research Report No. (ERR-71) 29 pp,
February 2009
Japan is a leading market for U.S. oranges. Since 1995, orange consumption in Japan has
declined. This report summarizes an analysis of household survey data to assess various
factors that may be related to the decline. Consumption of oranges in Japan differs markedly
across generations, with younger generations (cohorts) eating fewer oranges than
older generations. However, within generations, as individuals in Japan grow older, they
eat more oranges. On balance, the effects on consumption associated with aging and birth
cohort membership are mostly offsetting. Orange prices affect consumption levels, but
household income does not. Even after the analysis accounts for price and demographic
variables, a strong downward trend is evident in orange consumption in Japan. Results suggest that orange consumption could decline even more in the future.
Keywords: Japan, oranges, consumption, age/period/cohort analysis, ERS, USDA
In this report ... Chapters are
in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
- Abstract, Contents, and Summary, 133 kb.
- Introduction, 155 kb.
- Household Purchases of Oranges by Age of Household Head, 46 kb.
- Deriving Individual Consumption From Household Data, 61 kb.
- Decomposing Individual Consumption by Age From 1987 to 2006 Into Age, Cohort, and Period Effects, 58 kb.
- Discussion of Age, Period, and Cohort Effects, 118 kb.
- Economic Analysis of Period Effects on Orange Consumption—Are Oranges Normal Goods in Japan?, 127 kb.
- Conclusions, 39 kb.
- References, 45 kb.
Charts and graphs (in .png format) from this report are available in the .zip file listed below. The .zip file also contains a document (readme.txt) that lists the name and title of each chart or graph file.
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Updated date: February 5, 2009
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