Institute for National Strategic Studies


STRATEGIC
TRENDS IN
CHINA
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Edited by

Hans Binnendijk and
Ronald N. Montaperto

 

INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES
NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY
1998

The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is a major component of the National Defense University (NDU), which operates under the supervision of the President of NDU. It conducts strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and unified commanders in chief; supports national strategic components of NDU academic programs; and provides outreach to other governmental agencies and the broader national security community.

The Publication Directorate of INSS publishes books, monographs, reports, and occasional papers on national security strategy, defense policy, and national military strategy through NDU Press that reflect the output of NDU research and academic programs. In addition, it produces the INSS Strategic Assessment and other work approved by the President of NDU, as well as Joint Force Quarterly, a professional military journal published for the Chairman.

Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.

Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews.

NDU publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information, call (202) 512-1800 or write to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.

First Printing, June 1998

ISBN 1-57906-011-0


Contents

Executive Summary and Recommendations

INTRODUCTION

SESSION 1: China's Economic Prospects
        Nicholas Lardy and Kevin Nealer

SESSION 2: The Political System
Harry Harding and Doug Paal

SESSION 3: Strategic Perspectives
        James Lilley and Richard Solomon

SESSION 4: Defense Policy and Posture I
         Richard Fisher and Paul H. B. Godwin

SESSION 5: Defense Policy and Posture II
         John Culver and Michael Pillsbury

SESSION 6: Nuclear Issues
         Michael Nacht and Tom Woodrow

SESSION 7: Taiwan and the South China Sea 
         Ralph Clough and Scott Snyder

SESSION 8: Russia and China
Sherman Garnett and Thomas Robinson

SESSION 9: Northeast Asia
         Bonnie Glaser and Ronald N. Montaperto

SESSION 10: An Interest-Based China Policy
         Chas. W. Freeman, Jr.

 

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Last Update:  October 1, 2002