STRATEGIC
TRENDS IN
CHINA
Edited by
Hans Binnendijk and
Ronald N. Montaperto
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES
NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY
1998
The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is a major component of the National Defense University (NDU), which operates under the supervision of the President of NDU. It conducts strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and unified commanders in chief; supports national strategic components of NDU academic programs; and provides outreach to other governmental agencies and the broader national security community.
The Publication Directorate of INSS publishes books, monographs, reports, and occasional papers on national security strategy, defense policy, and national military strategy through NDU Press that reflect the output of NDU research and academic programs. In addition, it produces the INSS Strategic Assessment and other work approved by the President of NDU, as well as Joint Force Quarterly, a professional military journal published for the Chairman.
Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.
Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews.
NDU publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information, call (202) 512-1800 or write to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.
First Printing, June 1998
ISBN 1-57906-011-0
Contents
Executive Summary and Recommendations
SESSION 1: China's
Economic Prospects
Nicholas Lardy and Kevin Nealer
SESSION
2: The Political System
Harry Harding and Doug Paal
SESSION 3: Strategic
Perspectives
James Lilley and Richard Solomon
SESSION 4: Defense
Policy and Posture I
Richard Fisher and Paul H. B. Godwin
SESSION 5: Defense
Policy and Posture II
John Culver and Michael Pillsbury
SESSION 6: Nuclear
Issues
Michael Nacht and Tom Woodrow
SESSION 7: Taiwan
and the South China Sea
Ralph Clough and Scott Snyder
SESSION 8: Russia
and China
Sherman Garnett and Thomas Robinson
SESSION 9: Northeast
Asia
Bonnie Glaser and Ronald N. Montaperto
SESSION 10: An
Interest-Based China Policy
Chas. W. Freeman, Jr.
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Last Update: October 1, 2002