HOT JOBS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

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April 2000

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HOT JOBS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

Between 1998 and 2008, U.S. employment will rise to 160.8 million from 140.5 million. This represents an increase of 14 percent, or 20.3 million jobs. Many of these new jobs opportunities will benefit persons seeking employment in computer and health related occupations, social services, legal, natural science, teaching, and financial sales areas.

Women's Labor Force: Women have a huge stake in the current and future job market. Between 1998 and 2008, women's participation in the labor force is expected to increase by 15 percent, while men will only see an increase of about 10 percent. As a result, women will increase their share of the labor force from 46 to 48 percent.

The fastest labor force increase will be among Hispanic origin and Asian and other1 women, 48.8 and 45.7 percent, respectively. Black women will increase their participation by 21.1 percent and white women by 12.6 percent.

Growing Occupations: There are two perspectives when viewing growth occupations–1) those with the largest job growth and 2) those with the fastest growth. Largest job growth refers to the total number of jobs created within an occupation over a specific period of time, while fastest job growth refers to the percentage change in employment within a particular occupation over a specific period of time. One fact to remember -- the fast growing occupations account for less than 20 percent of the projected overall growth in employment between 1998-2008. The employment size of an occupation during the base year of comparison has much to do with the growth of the occupation.

Major Occupational Groups: Employment in professional specialty occupations will increase the fastest (27 percent) and add the most jobs (5.3 million) between 1998-2008. Much of this growth is expected to be found among teachers, computer, mathematical and operations research occupations, and health assessment and treating occupations.

The group with the second fastest growth rate (22.2 percent) is technicians and related support occupations--only 1 million new jobs, however, are projected to be created. More than half of this projected job growth is expected among health technicians and technologists.


Employment in service occupations is projected to increase by 17.1 percent or 3.9 million jobs. More than half of these newly created jobs will be found in public education, State and local government hospitals, and health services. Other subgroups within the services sector with substantial projected growth are food preparation, personal services, protective service, and cleaning and building services. The number of self-employed service workers is also expected to increase by 220,000 jobs, with large gains in the cleaning and building services occupations.

The number of executive, administrative, and managerial (EXAM) workers is projected to increase by 16.4 percent, or 2.4 million jobs. Most of these jobs will be found in various segments of the services sector–public education, hospitals, finance, insurance, and real estate, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and public utilities. The number of self-employed EXAM workers is expected to increase by 361,000--many of these workers run their own businesses or are self-employed consultants.

Table 1 only includes those major occupational groups that equal or exceed the average growth for all occupations. Excluded from the table are administrative support, including clerical; agricultural, forestry, and fishing; precision production, craft, and repair; and operators, fabricators, and laborers.

Much faster than average growth: 36 percent of more.
Faster than average growth: 21-35 percent.
About as fast as average growth: 10-20 percent.


Fast Growing Occupations: Table 2 shows the 30 fastest growing occupations. The majority are in the computer or health-related fields, with the rest in areas such as social services, legal, natural science, or financial services. For comparison, the occupations have been grouped according to fields of study.





Table 2
Fastest Growing Occupations, 1998-2008
(numbers in thousands)

Employment

Change

Occupation

1998

2008 Number Percent
Computer-Related Occupations
Computer engineers 299 622 323 108
Computer support specialists 429 869 439 102
Systems analysts 617 1,194 577 94
Database administrators 87 155 67 77
Desktop publishing specialists 26 44 19 73
Data processing equipment repairers 79 117 37 47
Electronic semiconductor processors 63 92 29 45
Engineering, natural science, and computer and information systems managers 326 468 142 43
Health-Related Occupations
Personal care and home health aides 746 1,179 433 58
Medical assistants 252 398 146 58
Physical assistants 66 98 32 48
Medical records and health information technicians 92 133 41 44
Physical therapy assistants and aides 82 118 36 44
Respiratory therapists 86 123 37 43
Dental assistants 229 325 97 42
Surgical technologists 54 77 23 42
Dental hygeienists 143 201 58 41
Occupational therapy assistants and aides 19 26 7 40
Cardiovascular technologies and technicians 21 29 8 39
Speech-language pathologists and audiologists 105 145 40 38
Ambulance drivers and attendants, except EMTs 19 26 7 35
Occupational therapists 73 98 25 34
Social and recreation workers
Social and human service assistants 268 410 141 53
Residential counselors 190 278 88 46
Social workers 604 822 218 36
Law enforcement occupations
Correctional officers 383 532 148 39
Legal assistants and technicians, except clerical
Paralegals and legal assistants 136 220 84 62
Marketing and sales occupations
Securities, commodities, and financial service sales agents 303 427 124 41
Bill and account collectors 311 420 110 35
Life scientists
Biological scientists 81 109 28 35

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 1999.

Computer and health-related occupations dominate the list of fast-growing occupations. These two occupational groups also represent some of the higher-paying, faster-growing occupations.

Computer-related occupations (computer engineers, systems analysts, database administrators, data processing equipment repairers) will also grow at a very fast rate in the coming years because of the continuing advances in computer technology. The expanding need for new computer applications for the World Wide Web, scientific research, productivity gains, and demand for cost reductions will fuel the need for computer engineers/programmers, systems analysts, and computer and data processing repairers. The computer field tends to require more education and offer higher earnings than health services, where a number of the fast-growing occupations have lower than median earnings.

Health care occupations will continue to grow rapidly because of a large aging population that will require more health care, a wealthier population that can afford better health care, and the advent of new advances in medical technology. Many of these occupations are technicians and assistants, medical assistants, medical records and health information technicians, physical therapy assistants and aides, and dental assistants.

Occupations with the Largest Job Growth: Most of the occupations with the largest projected job growth are concentrated in four industry sectors–retail trade; business services; health services; and public and private education. These four sectors will account for more than three-fifths of total job growth from 1998 to 2008. Table 3 on the following page lists fastest growing occupations by these industry sectors.

Many large growth occupations have average or less than average growth rates while still providing more job openings than some fast growing occupations strictly because of their large size. Some examples of these occupations are retail salespersons, general managers and top executives, cashiers, general office clerks, and truck drivers.

Educational Requirements: Occupations requiring an associate degree or higher level of education accounted for one-fourth of all jobs in 1998 and will account for 40 percent of total job growth between 1998 and 2008. Those requiring no education and training beyond high school, except for on-the-job training, will account for 57 percent of the job growth.

Occupations requiring a bachelor's degree or more education are concentrated in the professional specialty group. The 1999 median weekly earnings figure for full-time wage and salary workers employed in professional specialty occupations was $800 (both sexes). Examples of fast-growing, high-paying jobs in this category include: computer engineers, systems analysts, database administrators, physician assistants, residential counselors, social workers, biological scientists, and occupational therapists. Examples of large growth occupations in this category are systems analysts, computer engineers, elementary and secondary school teachers, social workers, college and university faculty, and computer programmers.

Examples of high-paying growth occupations that may not require a bachelor's degree but do require post-secondary education or training are: computer support specialists, desktop publishing specialists, paralegals, medical records/health information technicians, physical and occupational therapy assistants, respiratory therapists, dental hygienists, cardiovascular technologists and technicians, and correctional officers. (It is important to realize that employers may favor applicants with more education or training than is minimally required.)

Table 3
Occupations with the Largest Job Growth, 1998-2008
(numbers in thousands)

Employment

Change

Occupation

1998

2008 Number Percent
Business Services
Systems analysts 617 1,194 577 94
General managers and top executives 3,362 3,913 551 16
Truck drivers, light and heavy 2,970 3,463 493 17
Office clerks, general 3,021 3,484 463 15
Computer support occupations 429 869 439 102
Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners 3,184 3,549 365 11
Computer engineers 299 622 323 108
Office and administrative support supervisors and managers 1,611 1,924 313 19
Receptionists and information clerks 1,293 1,599 305 24
Guards 1,027 1,321 294 29
Marketing and sale workers supervisors 2,584 2,847 263 10
Child care workers 905 1,141 236 26
Laborers, landscaping and grounds keeping 1,130 1,364 234 21
Computer programmers 648 839 191 30
Adjustment clerks 479 642 163 34
Correctional officers 383 532 148 39
Retail trade
Retail salespersons 4,056 4,620 563 14
Cashiers 3,198 3,754 556 17
Waiters and waitresses 2,019 2,322 303 15
Food counter, fountain, and related workers 2,205 2,272 247 12
Health Services
Registered nurses 2,079 2,530 451 22
Personal care and home health aides 746 1,179 433 58
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,367 1,692 325 24
Social workers 604 822 218 36
Public and Private Education
Teacher assistants 1,192 1,567 375 31
Teachers, secondary school 1,426 1,749 322 23
Teachers, elementary school 1,754 1,959 205 12
College and university faculty 865 1,061 195 23

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Monthly Labor Review, November 1999.

Growth occupations that do not require post-secondary education generally do not offer the higher than median earnings associated with the above-mentioned jobs. Many of these jobs require short-term on-the-job training in which the worker can usually learn their skills in less than a year. They include: home health aides, bill and account collectors, retail salespersons, cashiers, truck drivers, teacher assistants, janitors and cleaners, nursing aides, orderlies, waiters and waitresses, guards, food counter workers, child care workers, and laborers. None of these occupations had median weekly earnings higher than the average ($549) for all workers in 1999.

Education and training are critical elements in preparing for our employment futures. As Chart 1 shows, most high-paying, fast-growing occupations require at least a bachelor's degree and/or extensive, equivalent work experience.

Chart 1
Wages of fast-growing, high-paying occupations, 1998-2000

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Nontraditional Occupations for Women: The Women's Bureau has a long history of encouraging women to seek jobs offering good wages and employee benefits, many of which are in nontraditional occupations for women. We use "nontraditional occupation," or NTO, to describe any occupation in which women comprise 25 percent or less of total employment.

Many people hear this term and think immediately of outdoor work that is physically demanding, dirty or dangerous in nature -- construction jobs, automobile mechanics, or heavy equipment operators. In fact, NTOs span all six major occupational groups -- managerial and professional; technical, sales, and administrative support; service; precision production, craft and repair; operators, fabricators, and laborers; and farming, forestry, and fishing occupations.

NTOs tend to offer higher wages than many of the occupations where women are in the majority. Engineers, architects, police and detectives, electrical and electronic technicians and technologists are examples of nontraditional occupations that are expected to exhibit fast growth and/or create a large number of jobs. All have 1999 median weekly earnings higher than the average for all wage and salary workers who usually work full time.

While women should consider promising NTOs, they should also look to fast-growing, high-paying fields where women are already in the majority. Some examples are: secondary school teachers; special education teachers; registered nurses; and respiratory, physical, and occupational therapists.

Congress has passed two pieces of legislation to help women gain self-sufficiency by increasing opportunity in nontraditional fields. The Nontraditional Employment for Women (NEW) Act, effective July 1, 1992, was created to broaden the range of Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) training and placement for women. The Women in Apprenticeship and Nontraditional Occupations (WANTO) Act, effective October 27, 1992, was designed to provide technical assistance to employers and labor organizations. Both of these government programs were funded by JPTA Title IV-D. JTPA will be suspended by the Workforce Investment Act on July 1, 2000.

Under the 4-year NEW demonstration grant program ended in 1996, the Women's Bureau and the U.S. Department of Labor's Employment and Training Administration (ETA) awarded 23 NEW grants to 22 states to provide for systemic change in state JTPA and other training and placement programs. Almost 5,000 women have directly participated in training and/or job placement. NEW program awareness and orientation classes reached more than 30,000 women through program notices, workshops, conferences, seminars, videos, notices in churches, welfare agencies and related social agencies, and community mailings.

Through WANTO, the Women's Bureau and ETA's Bureau of Apprenticeship and Training have awarded community-based organizations 38 grants to provide technical assistance to employers and labor organizations promoting apprenticeship and NTOs in their workplace policies and practices between Fiscal Years ‘94 and ‘99. WANTO has provided more than 3,000 direct consultations and has indirectly provided assistance to many more employers and labor organizations and their representatives to develop strategies through conferences, workshops, and subject-specific seminars (mentoring, sexual harassment, support groups, training, etc.) in on-and off-site venues.

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