Economic Impacts of Foreign Animal Disease
By Philip L. Paarlberg, Ann Hillberg Seitzinger, John G. Lee, and Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr.
Economic Research Report No. (ERR-57) 80 pp,
May 2008
As more is learned about the impacts of foreign animal-disease outbreaks, questions arise regarding the efficacy of existing animal disease-impact models for capturing the array of effects across many economic sectors and time. Previous models lacked adequate treatment of either the economic components or the epidemiological components, and, in some cases, both. This report presents a quarterly livestock and crop modeling framework in which epidemiological model results are integrated with an economic model of the U.S. agricultural sector to estimate the economic impacts of outbreaks of foreign-source livestock diseases. The framework can be applied to many livestock diseases and this study uses the model to assess the results of a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Model results show large trade-related losses for beef, beef cattle, hogs, and pork, even though relatively few animals are destroyed. The best control strategies prove to be those that reduce the duration of the outbreak.
Keywords: Animal disease, epidemiology, foot and mouth disease, FMD, sector model, livestock, crops, trade, ERS, USDA
In this report ... Chapters are
in Adobe Acrobat PDF format.
- Abstract, Acknowledgments, and Contents, 64 kb.
- Summary, 50 kb.
- Introduction, 45 kb.
- A Conceptual Model of the Agricultural Sector, 99 kb.
- Simulation of an Outbreak of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, 60 kb.
- Economic Impacts of an FMD Outbreak, 367 kb.
- Conclusions, 45 kb.
- References, 48 kb.
- Appendix A—A Conceptual Model of the
Agricultural Sector, 134 kb.
- Appendix B—Numerical Model Data and
Numerical Form, 99 kb.
Charts and graphs (in .png format) from this report are available in the .zip file listed below. The .zip file also contains a document (readme.txt) that lists the name and title of each chart or graph file.
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Updated date: May 28, 2008
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